Payment predictions for 2017

The payments landscape is changing fast due to new disruptive technologies such as open APIs, distributed ledger , cloud, Apple/Samsung/&;Pay, and customers’ expectations are changing for seamless and faster payments. Despite this, I can see clear trends through our work with clients and observation of industry developments, and based on these, I have developed a set of for .

Contactless and Mobile Payments

  • Contactless card transactions in the UK will rise to between 6bn &; 9bn txns in 2017, and 20bn &8211; 30bn txns across Europe (compared to my forecasts a year ago of 3bn txns for UK and 9bn txns for Europe for 2016).
  • Cash usage will see a clear reduction across Europe—as an example, ATM cash withdrawals in the UK, which peaked at 2.9bn withdrawals in 2012, will fall from 2.7bn withdrawals in 2016 to somewhere between 2 – 2.5bn withdrawals in 2017.
  • Use of Apple Pay, Samsung Pay etc. will become more widespread in 2017, for both POS and in-app payments—expect to see published figures for strong growth rates in specific markets, even if absolute transaction volume figures remain undisclosed.


  • Omni-channel retailing will drive development of cross-channel and cross-border gateway solutions.
  • As augmented reality becomes a big theme in retailing, expect to see new payment solutions to support augmented reality commerce.
  • Wearable payment mechanisms will remain a niche—but imaginative new wearables will emerge.
  • Payment solutions from China will gain traction in other markets, following Alipay’s entry to Europe in 2016, and will start focusing on acquiring local customers, as well as supporting Chinese consumers abroad.
  • The use of payments in the Internet-of-Things (IoT) will grow, in particular with connected cars and utility meters.
  • Voice payments solutions will start making a hit with the public—perhaps through Siri on iPhones, Alexa on Amazon and at POS.
  • Alternative payment mechanisms such as PayPal, iDEAL in the Netherlands and Klarna (Europe and US) will continue to grow strongly (20% – 30%) for e-commerce, driven both by convenience and by high fraud rates in card-not-present transactions.

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