As I step into my new role as Accenture’s global #payments lead, it got me thinking about the constantly evolving industry landscape—and the themes that will play important roles in that evolution the #remainder of the year. I’ve divided my selections into three categories: Established Trends, Building Trends and New Trends, though some are applicable to more than one category. Take a look.
Established Trends
- Contactless payments will continue to grow at 100%+ in Europe—expect more than 40bn transactions, all told.
- Cash will experience an accelerated decline across Europe. Expect fewer than 1.8bn ATM withdrawals in the UK (which peaked at 2.9 bn in 2012).
- Real-time payments will grow quickly where they have been established for many years. Faster Payments volumes in the UK will exceed 2bn transactions.
- Mobile wallet payments such as Apple Pay and Samsung will experience strong growth.
Building Trends
- Propositions using PSD2-compliant APIs will appear gradually. Expect bank and #fintech applications such as account aggregation to appear in the first half, followed by retailer applications in the second half.
- Infrastructure renewal programmes will appear around the world, for real-time domestic payments and RTGS wholesale payments.
- Real-time payments adoption in Europe will be slow. While a large number of #banks will implement the #technology required and connect to new real-time central infrastructures, volumes will remain low until at least 2019.
- Some banks will start building cloud payment solutions as an alternative to on-premise technology.
- Request-to-pay as an invoicing and payment method will emerge as a proposition in several countries.
- Mobile wallets from China, already accepted by many retailers in Europe for Chinese nationals, will take advantage of PSD2 account access to launch services targeted at Europeans.
- Wearables for payments will start proliferating with new devices and fashion accessories.
- Although most banks will still shun #Bitcoin, expect to see cash management products appear aimed at corporate treasurers using Bitcoin and Ethereum.
- Ethereum will grow rapidly in popularity; its market cap will exceed Bitcoin by year’s end.
- Ripple’s network for cross-border transactions will grow significantly, attracting more banks and corporates, which will lead to rising transaction volume.
New Trends
- The consumer experience for payments will become a battleground for banks, especially around authentication for PSD2 on third-party applications.
- Challenger bank adoption will be much higher than in the past due to their superior customer experience for payments.
- Biometrics such as facial, voice and hand-movement recognition, now robust enough for mass use, will be adopted by banks and fintechs as a weapon in the consumer experience battle, and also for securing #cryptocurrency wallets.
- Retailer wallets for both ecommerce and in-store payments will start appearing in sectors such as supermarkets, fuel and quick-service restaurants, emulating the success of Starbucks and Walmart, and focused on a slick checkout process using biometrics.
- Retailers will start demanding new payment methods for recurring payments for subscription- and credit-based services.
- Fintechs and banks will see the importance of linking credit and payments. Expect to see this as an emerging theme in payments innovation.
- Voice-activated payments will start appearing as Google Home, Alexa, Cortina, Siri, etc. grow in popularity.
- Central banks around the world will warm to the idea of issuing their fiat currency on distributed ledger technology—and at least one will have concrete plans to implement the technology.
- As banks adopt real-time payments in economies such as Australia, Europe and the US, new capabilities will emerge to operate in real time, for example, corporate cash management solutions for real-time cross-border payments, virtual accounts and fraud innovation.
I welcome your thoughts on these #predictions—and encourage you to share your own. Thanks for reading!
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